Crunch V’s Collapse
Posted on 2nd June 2026 by Adam Mackrell
Some people leave it so long they’re essentially drinking biscuits!
This morning, partaking in my daily ritual of a cup of tea and a biscuit before the household awoke, I found myself reflecting on the remarkable difference between a Hobnob and a RichTea. One seems almost engineered to withstand pressure and prolonged immersion in any “hot water” while the other can disintegrate with little more than overconfidence and a few seconds of over exposure. A useful reminder perhaps, particularly here in the UK and of course in Westminster that not everything marketed as stable necessarily survives contact with “Acqua Calda”.
One suspects the Rich Tea would struggle badly both in Westminster and the current UK economic climate. I couldn’t help thinking that currently the markets, businesses and indeed people are often much the same. Strength is not always avoiding pressure, strength is retaining structure under pressure. It’s super, super easy to overthink and then underperform right? I have been reminded of the modern maxim very recently “box too clever and get a broken nose” OR in my case a black eye – courtesy of my angelic looking 19 month old daughter Grace who gave me this present with the back of her head when I was trying to be a bit clever while reading her a story!
Talking about reading, this week while sat peacefully in Christ Church Cathedral at my son’s assembly I heard a story on David and Goliath. It lingered with me a lot longer than usual. The lesson, it seems to me was never really about the size difference at all. Goliath had all the appearance of invincibility, towering over everyone around him in armor and spectacle, while David arrived with little more than instinct, a whole load of courage and importantly a few stones he understood perfectly how to use. King Saul attempted to dress him in borrowed armor beforehand, but David quickly realised that sophistication without familiarity can become a liability under real pressure – One occasionally see’s similarity in parts of the modern PRS Sector, where some have confused complexity for resilience – However I am certain there is something in that for all of us currently navigating the markets, businesses and modern day life more generally. Particularly in periods like this where noise, swagger and complexity often masquerade as resilience because ultimately whether in Westminster, markets or mugs of tea, true structure tends to reveal itself only under pressure.
Fortunately robustness tends to age rather well. It certainly has for us over the last eleven years.
Is there a link to the residential property market here..?
Yer there is, a lot actually. Every cycle eventually reveals the difference between ‘Crunch and Collapse’. Between assets, businesses and strategies that merely look resilient and those that genuinely are. The last few weeks alone have given markets plenty to dunk into “hot water”! From sticky inflation, nervy bond markets, geopolitical tensions, cautious consumers, political uncertainty and continued debate around the future direction of interest rates here in the UK. The headlines continue to arrive with almost theatrical reliability. And yet much like David standing in front of Goliath without borrowed armour or unnecessary complication, the underlying fundamentals often remain surprisingly simple.
People still need somewhere to live, good land remains finite and income, particularly reliable income still tends to steady the ship when sentiment becomes emotional.
Nationally the housing market currently feels neither euphoric nor distressed. More cautious perhaps and more selective. Transactions have slowed slightly following the stamp duty (SDLT) pull forward earlier this year and parts of the south continue to wrestle with affordability pressures, particularly as mortgage pricing remains sensitive to inflation expectations and global energy instability. Recent uncertainty surrounding the Middle East and oil prices has not exactly helped confidence either.
BUT underneath the surface noise the broader picture remains relatively resilient. Employment has held up better than most expected, inflation has eased recently even if the roadblock to normal remains a little bumpy. Mortgage markets are certainly more stable than 18 months ago, even if buyers remain cautious and perhaps most importantly for us, rental demand continues to significantly outpace supply in many structurally constrained locations.
Here in Oxford, that structural imbalance remains particularly pronounced. Average house prices have broadly stabilized over the last year, but rents have continued rising strongly and above the South East average. In simple terms the demand for quality accommodation here continues to exceed what the city can realistically supply.
No dramatic pivots
No borrowed armour
No chasing fashionable narratives
Just continued focus on what has generally served us and our partners well through multiple cycles over the last eleven years. Structurally resilient locations (Not all of them in Oxford are you know..) Sensible leverage, strong occupancy and long term income producing assets capable of retaining their structure under pressure.
After all somethings retain their crunch rather well, others eventually become part of the tea.
OSG’s Vista
Structure matters
Pressure reveals what was solid all along
Oxford still holds
Demand continues to outpace meaningful supply locally.
Income steadies nerves
Reliable yield still calms volatile sentiment.
Complexity isn’t strength
Borrowed armor rarely fits for long.
Patience keeps paying
Short term hesitation continues creating opportunity.
Warm regards,
Adam Mackrell
Oxford Spires Group
Data referenced from:
Office for National Statistics (ONS)