Hope – great comeback story, Discipline – better track record
Posted on 11th February 2026 by Adam Mackrell
As we start the year, the UK housing market is showing us something familiar yet nuanced: stability beneath the surface of volatile snapshots or rather it looks chaotic if you check every five mins but much calmer if you zoom out and breathe….
Rather than weakness, what we’re seeing is adjustment & early signs that confidence is quietly returning.
If you relied solely on the headlines, you’d assume the UK housing market was in more trouble than Westminster’s group chats!! Fortunately for us, neither sentiment nor politics have ever been reliable valuation tools.
Here within is what the most recent data tells us about where things really stand as of January 2026….
House Prices: Mixed Signals, Underlying Support
The broadest house price measures tell two simultaneous stories:
Official indices (sold prices):
- UK average house prices barely moved in 2025, with growth of around 1.2% over the year.
- The average UK price sits near £269,800, with more modest annual rises than in prior years.
Market behavior (asking prices):
- New listings in January 2026 showed a record month-on-month rise (+2.8%), and average asking prices hit around £368,000, suggesting renewed buyer interest.
This split of sold prices steady, asking prices up is a classic early-year phenomenon when buyer enquiries increase after the Christmas period. It doesn’t signal frenzy; it’s the moment the nation stops shouting about politics online and quietly books a mortgage appointment.
Mortgage Rates and Affordability: Turning the Corner
The cost of borrowing remains one of the largest influences on market confidence:
- The Bank of England base rate has been cut to 3.75%, after several reductions through 2025.
- Mortgage products are following suit, with fixed rates now available around mid-3% levels on many deals (3.5% for 2–5-year fixes).
- Industry data suggests overall mortgage affordability could return to levels last seen in 2021 as rates ease and incomes rise. Ultra-cheap debt isn’t coming back – but the market is far more navigable than it has been for years.
Regional Realities: Where Growth Is Happening
Across the UK, price performance is divergent:
- Northern and more affordable areas recorded stronger growth.
- London and parts of the South saw flatter or slightly negative moves in 2025.
This is not a surprise – affordability pressures have been a key driver for buyers seeking real value.
In rental markets, official statistics show private rents growing around 4% nationally, with regional variation.
These patterns matter because treating the UK housing market as one thing is like assuming everyone in Westminster agrees on something.It’s a lovely idea. It’s just not real…
Activity Levels: Not Bust, Just Balanced
While transaction levels lagged the highs seen in 2021–22, activity in late 2025 and early 2026 remained broadly in line with pre-Covid norms.
This isn’t a crash. It’s more like a market that has purged excess speculation and settled into a structurally normal rhythm after years of distortion.
OSG Vista….
1. Stabilisation is healthy.
Sharp price rises followed by abrupt drops are not a path to long-term returns. What we have now is demand meeting supply not chasing its tail.
2. Affordability improvements matter.
Lower effective rates and more manageable servicing costs make deals more predictable, which increases activity without irrational pricing.
3. Localised strength beats broad assumptions.
Markets with real demand drivers – jobs, institutions, transport links will outperform headline indices. We prioritise this kind of foundation over averages.
4. Rents are resilient.
While annual rent inflation has eased slightly, it remains positive and sustainable providing a stable backbone for investor returns.
A Final Thought
The best property outcomes come from discipline in uncertainty, not haste in hope.
The headlines may oscillate from cautious to optimistic, but what matters to long-term results is the underlying rhythm of real demand, real funding, and real human needs.
As of January 2026, that rhythm feels steady – not static, but not shaky either.
We’ll continue to watch developments, prioritise clarity over noise, and work with partners who think in medium to long terms, not days.
Warm regards,
Adam Mackrell
Oxford Spires Group
Data referenced from:
Rightmove – January House Price Index
Office for National Statistics (ONS) – Private Rent and House Prices UK
MoneySavingExpert – Mortgage rate and affordability analysis
Estate Agent Today – Mortgage affordability commentary