Supply is back! Like Tyson Fury after his fifth retirement…
Posted on 12th June 2025 by Adam Mackrell
Dear Investors and Partners,
I recently crossed the Channel to mark the anniversary of D-Day with my children, and crossing the channel, as those who liberated Europe had done 81 years before, from Portsmouth to the Normandy Coast.
The ferry was crowded with men in uniforms all sporting medals, it was poignant. When we could no longer see England, we threw a wreath overboard to commemorate those who had made this journey and unfortunately had not come back.
We stood & watched as it floated away into the sea in the middle distance.
We were privileged enough to go to Bayeux Cathedral for their service, in the presence of the British ambassador and many local dignitaries. At the beginning of service, the bells of the cathedral were rung out, a deep, body-shaking, haunting sound that really got the attention and if we weren’t before – we were fully present now. I was very touched to be a part of it, this year and perhaps most movingly while walking the same French coastline where courage met chaos 80 years ago. It was a reminder that long-term victories are won with preparation, patience, and perspective — not knee-jerk reactions. In our world and in our DNA of property and the PRS – The property market’s frankly – no different!
So….
As we step into June, the UK housing market presents a nuanced picture. – that needs perspective. According to Nationwide, annual house price growth slowed to 3.4% in April, down from 3.9% in March, with a month-on-month decline of 0.6%, bringing the average UK home price to £270,752
Market Dynamics
The recent dip is largely attributed to the end of temporary stamp duty cuts in England and Northern Ireland on April 1st.This led to a surge in transactions in March, as buyers aimed to complete purchases before the changes took effect.
Despite this short-term softness, underlying market conditions remain supportive: Low Unemployment: The job market remains robust, providing stability for potential buyers.
- Rising Real Earnings: Wage growth continues to outpace inflation, enhancing purchasing power.
- Favourable Borrowing Costs: The Bank of England’s recent interest rate cut to 4.25% has led to mortgage rates falling below 4% from major lenders like Barclays and HSBC.
Regional Insights
The market exhibits regional variations:
Northern England and Scotland: These areas are experiencing stronger activity and price growth, driven by increased affordability and demand
Southern England: An uptick in property listings is providing buyers with more options, leading to a more balanced market.
Looking Ahead
While the immediate aftermath of stamp duty changes has introduced some volatility, the market is expected to stabilize and gradually pick up momentum over the summer months. For investors and homebuyers, this period offers opportunities to engage with a market that, while cooling slightly, remains fundamentally strong.
At Oxford Spires Group, we are committed to guiding you through these macro and micro market shifts with informed advice, ear to the ground insights and masses of experience, especially here in our beloved Oxford.. We’re more Oxford than rowing, red trousers or rain!
Warm regards,
The Oxford Spires Group Team
Sources:
Nationwide House Price Index – Annual house price growth slows slightly in April 2025
Rightmove Rental Trends Tracker Q1 2025 – Rental market insights and yield data
Hamptons International – Renting and buying costs equalise in the UK
Landlord Today – Generation Rent objects to growing guarantor requirements
Mortgage Strategy – Accord lowers stress rates in new affordability model